UN cautions that plans to expand fossil fuel use pose a threat to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The United Nations issued this warning on Wednesday.

The future of fossil fuels will be a significant flashpoint when world leaders convene later this month at the COP28 climate conference, tasked with preserving the world's agreed-upon temperature targets.

Most of the world's leading fossil fuel producers have pledged to achieve "net-zero" emissions by mid-century, a target that should align with the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to well below two degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius.

However, the annual United Nations Environment Programme Production Gap study revealed that the top 20 producing countries, including the United States, China, Russia, Australia, and COP28 host United Arab Emirates, had opposing production goals.

Overall, it discovered that governments' plans would produce 110 percent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and 69 percent more than would be consistent with limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

"Governments' plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition required to achieve net-zero emissions, calling humanity's future into question," said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.

"Starting at COP28, nations must unite behind a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil and gas to ease the turbulence ahead and benefit every person on this planet."

By far the most significant contributor to climate change is the combustion of fossil fuels, which account for the majority of the planet-warming carbon pollution that is causing global warming and the accompanying barrage of temperature records, terrible weather disasters, and sea level rise.

However, nations have been hesitant to officially admit this in global climate negotiations, and the Paris Agreement does not specifically address how to meet the targets it establishes.

Ploy Achakulwisut, a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute and a main author of the UNEP research, claimed that this has resulted in a "huge disparity" between nations' production plans and the need to quickly transition away from fossil fuels in order to reach global climate targets.

Twenty countries are included in the UNEP report, which accounts for 73% of global fossil fuel use and 82% of global production.

It was discovered that anticipated production increases in these nations would result in the production of 29% more oil, 82% more gas, and 460 percent more coal than would be necessary to stay within the 1.5C limit.

According to the paper, since Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States, the world's largest producer of gas and oil, has boosted domestic gas and oil production while also tightening its environment rules. According to US officials, gas production will steadily rise while oil production will reach and maintain "record high levels" between 2024 and 2050.

According to UNEP, China is the world's largest polluter, producing slightly more than half of the world's supply of coal, the most polluting fossil fuel.

According to the survey, domestic coal production hit a record of almost 4.5 billion tons in 2022, and production was predicted to peak this decade. 

China, the global leader in renewable energy, has made a commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and to peak emissions by 2030.

Countries decided to "phase-down unabated coal power" at the COP26 conference in Glasgow two years ago. This was the first time a fossil fuel was specifically listed in the negotiated accord. In general, "abated" refers to absorbing emissions prior to their atmospheric entry.

Although the UNEP called that commitment a “significant milestone,” it also pointed out that fossil fuel consumption and output had “reached record high levels” since then.

From November 30 to December 12, the gathering in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates is anticipated to focus mostly on fossil fuels and the pollution they produce. 

The phase-out of all fossil fuels is "inevitable and essential," according to Sultan Al Jaber, the incoming president of COP28 and head of the state-owned oil company ADNOC.

The UNEP assessment noted that ADNOC has plans to increase oil production capacity by 2027 as part of a $150 billion investment plan, but it also found that the UAE lacks specific regulations to promote a "managed wind-down" of its own fossil fuels.

According to Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, the research "exposes the glaring hypocrisy at the heart of global climate action" and urges affluent polluters to set an example.

Achakulwisut told AFP that while many nations had resorted to using fossil fuels more in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis, switching to sustainable energy was a more long-term answer for the environment and the economy.

"Instead of fossil fuels, what our society needs is energy," the speaker declared.

AAFP